MLS week 18

[rolltide]

34-28-4 +5.65 (staked 225.95, +2.5%)

first up are midweek US Open Cup quarterfinals. first pick is in RSL match with more to come later today...

FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake
- rematch from a few days ago where RSL shut down Dallas even without their starting center back, Borchers, and allowed just 1 shot on goal. Earlier match this season was a dull 0-0 draw in Dallas with a total of just 5 shots on frame so just 11 shots on goal combined in 180 minutes of play. Both teams with games this weekend so not sure what the lineups will look like but each have a defense-first style. RSL claim to have the Open Cup as an aim of theirs since it's the quickest way back to the Champions League but Dallas don't seem to have much interest especially with this being the 2nd of 9 games in 29 days. 5 of last 6 meetings ended with 2 or less goals and only twice in last 7 meetings have both teams scored. RSL's top striker, Saborio, has been left home to do disciplinary reasons while starting keeper, Rimando, did not travel due to ankle injury so Reynish will start in nets.

RSL/DC under 2.5 2.5u -120

 

[rolltide]

Chicago Fire vs RBNY
- biggest match of year for Chicago. They have little or no hope of making MLS playoffs so their season rides on a long cup run. They've now gotten here to the quarterfinals to host a match against New York, who are never much interested in the cup. The Red Bulls have been playing a ton of matches and have another brutal trip to LA this weekend so we'll see, at best, a split squad for this match. All the big names are out (henry, ream, marquez, tainio, rodgers, richards) though Agudelo will likely get a start up top and a few guys like Mendes and Ballouchy who have 1st team experience will play. This will be NY's 3rd match in 6 days and 8th match in less than a monthand with the coast-to-coast trip coming up for Saturday night's match expect mostly reserves. Chicago playing much better under Frankie Klopas and this will be the 2nd time these teams met in just 2 weeks. The Fire outplayed the Red Bulls in a 1-1 home draw and have avg almost 1.5 ppg under Klopas. NY of course is the best team in the East but they're concentrating on league play and have never had much interest in the US Open Cup. Really is the GOY for Chicago and no better chance than their first team meeting NY's B squad

Chicago Fire 6u +140

Sporting KC vs Richmond
- If NY has had a tough and congested recent schedule then Richmond's is ridiculous as this will be their 3rd match in 5 days, 5th match in July, 6th match in 14 days, and 11th match in 30 days! insane! They are one of the best teams in USL (2 levels below MLS) and beat the Columbus Crew away to make the quarterfinals but their cup run will end this week. Sporting KC coming off b2b draws but are unbeaten in 11 games overall and are a perfect 5-4-0 at home in 2011 with two easy cup wins (5-0 over NE, 3-0 over Chicago Fire II). They have one of the league's deepest squads so shouldn't be troubled by heavy congestion in fixtures especially since they've traveled away just once in the past 3 weeks. They also know that if they win they will host the RBNY/Chicago winner at home in the semifinals so they have the easiest path to the US Open Cup final match of any quarterfinal team. SKC does travel to Houston for a Saturday match but I still expect at least half starters here. An MLS team hosting a USL-2 team that is playing their 3rd match in 5 days has gotta be a simple home win.

Sporting KC 4u -222

 

[rolltide]

a couple of articles about the games today:
Richmond http://www.potomacsoccerwire.com/news/460/17183
Kansas City http://www.kansascity.com/2011/07/11/3008094/sporting-kc-to-take-on-richmond.html
New York http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/soccerblog/red_bulls_game_use_all_reserves_p2p0eAn60zuNgNI02E1JEI
RSL http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...ocuses-on-tie-2-not-9-losses-2-in-Dallas.html

 

[kidman232]

great call on chi-town

 

[rolltide]

thx kidman...had no idea about the time change due to power outages...glad I bet at 6am

KC lineup just released: Kronberg; Harrington, Besler, Collin, Myers; Sassano, Diop, Stojcev; Lorenz, Bunbury, Kamara

so reserve keeper, all 4 regular defenders, and all MF and FW have played at least 479 minutes this year except Lorenz. Would have loved either Zusi or Bravo to be starting but Bravo will start from bench. Looking for big night out of Bunbury and Kamara as both have seen a lot of chances lately without scoring

line has moved a bunch and can try for middle with Richmond +1.5 if interested...

 

[kidman232]

kept wishing they would just call the sporting kc game

 

[Coolie]

Are these games even on?

 

[kidman232]

chicago won 4-0, sporting kc going to lose 2-0 to a D league team, they have a long weather break for bad t-storms in kc, then richmond scored twice after delay

 

[rolltide]

Chicago 4-0 +8.4
Dallas 2-0 +2.50
Sporting KC 0-2 -8.88

36-29-4 +7.66 (staked 243.83, +3.1%)

re: KC (i thought the worst thing that could happen would be the lightning delay, allowing an incredibly tired team to get their legs back for the final 30 minutes. that was until 1 minute into restart when deflection went into KC net. Most humiliating loss by an MLS team in my memory. Played against a team playing for 3rd time in 5days, which is unheard of, and 5th time in 12 days...that have been taking a bus for 5000 miles...yes, 5000 miles, and that team happens to be USL-2, part-time players...oh, and KC were at home? insanity. clown fn league with overpaid shit like Omar fucking Bravo)

 

[Coolie]

No wonder! I followed blindly the first 2 games, but KC too much juice so i stabbed the U3 and tried to find it after the AS game, they're not even on espn

 

[kidman232]

you doing anything with manchester united's 1st game over in the usa? total seems kind of high new england is only 8 goals forced and 8 goals allowed in 9 home games, yet total tonight is over 3 with heavy juice at most books, they most really expect united to out class them as I can see NE getting more than 1 goal if that

 

[rolltide]

watching, not betting

MLS teams are usually competitive in these games. Top of my head this year DC hung in there with Ajax, as did Portland. Last year Sporting KC beat United (pretty ironic, eh?), expansion Philly lost close to United...can't remember any others. NE really suck but they won't get pasted 4-0 like normal.

not sure of the united lineup but i'm guessing a lot of obertan, cleverley, the dasilva twins, likely an ashley young debut, welbeck, maybe a rooney sighting

really pleased with this piece of news:

Sneijder agrees terms with United

 

[Kiln]

I'm thinking LA tonight away against Seattle. Any thoughts on this one, 'Tide?

 

[kidman232]

you seeing any value tonight

 

[rolltide]

Chivas USA vs RBNY
- RBNY on paper have the most dangerous team in MLS and today only miss Marquez in central defense. But paper doesn't win games and neither do the Red Bulls who've won just twice in 13 against the league's worst teams (lucky win vs New England, throttled Toronto...both at home). Bad locker room right now including fights and disgruntled players so probably the last thing they wanted was another cross-country plane ride to the West Coast. The Red Bulls did shore up the keeper situation this week signing Frank Rost from Hamburg but at 38 he's not exactly young. Chivas USA will miss Alejandro Moreno again (with Venezuela) while long-term injured Conrad is out joined by regular left back Jazic. Richards and Agudelo might give Chivas USA fits down the right side but if I was betting on talent I'd never oppose NY as they have the most in the league. Away from home the Red Bulls are winless in 8 and while allowing 18 goals and scoring 12. I like both Chivas USA and the over but will play the home team for my only play of the week on the match.

Chivas USA pk 3u +117

Houston vs Sporting KC
-After KC's midweek debacle vs RIchmond I expect a great effort tonight especially when coach came out on Wednesday and said he'd work their asses off for embarrassing him, the franchise, and the league. Although they never netted against Richmond they did take 22 shots so it's not like they were struggling for chances. IMO, this is a style matchup that will show goals. Sporting KC use 4-3-3 and very vulnerable defensively down the flanks which is where Houston, and Brad Davis in particular, flourish. On the other side Houston are very vulnerable to counter attacks at home because they like to possess the ball and push forward. As a result only Toronto and New England (same awful teams as listed above) failed to score here. In their other home games they've allowed 2-1-2-2-2-1-1-1. They have a long history of home overs, 11-4 last 15, and will undoubtedly get caught on at least one counter attack from Sampong, Bravo, Zusi, or Bunbury. Unfortgettable match between these two last year in late September which ended 4-3 in KC. I expect a wild one again

Houston/KC over 2.5 4u +100

 

[rolltide]

KC 1-1 -4.00
CUSA 0-0 +0.00

if anyone watched the Chivas USA game they saw one of the strangest ref decisions in league history as CUSA were awarded a penalty by ref in 90th minute and, after being surrounded by angry Red Bulls, reversed his decision. is like a NFL ref throwing a pass interference in the end zone, getting intimidated by the defensive back, so picking up the flag. insanity

Kadlecik whistled Red Bulls defender Carlos Mendesfor handling a Pearce corner kick in the final minute. The Red Bulls quickly surrounded the referee, who talked it over with linesman Jeff Hosking before reversing himself. “That's quite a roller-coaster there in a matter of seconds,” said midfielder Nick LaBrocca. “You're in there, and the end of the game is in sight, you're given something, and to have it taken away is an emotional thing.” Coach Fraser didn't want to talk about it much. “It's extremely disappointing and confusing, to say the least, but whatever,” he said. “Anything else I say will lead to me getting fined.” “It just sucks that the ref did call it at first,” forward Justin Braun said. “That's stuff that shouldn't go on. At this level, if you call a PK, you should stick with it.”


36-30-5 +3.66 (staked 250.83, +1.5%)